Indiana vs. Illinois Prediction, Odds, Line, Spread, and Picks – January 19


The Indiana Hoosiers (11-6) will take on the Illinois Fighting Illini (13-5) in Champaign on Thursday. Indiana snapped a three-game losing streak with a home win over then-ranked Wisconsin 63-45. Before that, they hadn’t picked up a quality win since a victory over North Carolina in late November.

However, Illinois is starting to find its stride, winning four straight conference games over Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Minnesota.


Indiana Hoosiers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Odds

Team Spread Total Money Line
Indiana Hoosiers +6.5 o144.5 +220
Illinois Fighting Illini -6.5 u144.5 -275

Odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook


Indiana Hoosiers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Match Details

Fixture: Indiana Hoosiers at Illinois Fighting Illini

Date and Time: Thursday, January 19 at 8:30 PM ET

Venue: State Farm Center


ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player’s average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.

The Indiana Hoosiers own a 1.09 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 60th in the nation. Illinois has the 7th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.90. does poorly to average in all key stats but shot selection where they are in the 89th percentile. They are also 4th in rim & three SQ PPP. Conversely, The Fighting Illini are 12th or better in the country in defensive shot selection and rim & three SQ PPP.

The Hoosiers own high-frequency numbers in cut, finishing at the rim, P&R ball screen, post-up, and transition shot types. They are in the top 70th in all those shot types except in the P&R, with a 0.97 SQ PPP (173rd in the country), and post-up, with a 0.90 SQ PPP (163rd). Conversely, the Fighting Illini are top 75 in all those categories, excelling in the P&R and transition, ranking within the top 10.

The Fighting Illini have a 1.09 AdjOFF SQ, the 62nd-best mark in the country. IU has posted a 0.96 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 57th in the country. The Fighting Illini are in the top 70 in spacing, shot selection, and the rim & three rate metric. The Hoosiers are in the top 80 in defensive shot selection and the rim & three rate metric but in the 74th percentile in defensive spacing.

Illinois is in the country’s top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: catch & shoot three-pointers, cut, finishing at the rim, isolation, off-the-dribble three-pointers, off-screen, and transition. IU is near elite in defending all those shot types, highlighted by a 1.19 SQ PPP in transition, good for the 22nd-best mark in the country. However, they do struggle with screens, ranking 241st in the nation.


Indiana vs. Illinois Prediction

IU has struggled to find its groove, despite housing one of the best players in the country in Trayce Jackson-Davis.

The Hoosiers have been without the services of Xavier Johnson and Race Thompson, and neither seems close to getting back on the court, but guard Trey Galloway is back in the starting five as the team tries to get back to full health.

Although they won’t be with all their best players on Thursday, they are getting too many points to avoid grabbing them against the spread.

Prediction: Indiana +6.5 (-110)

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